Introduction
After six years of Governor Phil Murphy, it’s time for New Jersey to select its next governor. In Jersey, governors serve three-year terms and are limited to two terms—a limit that prevents Murphy from running again. This means that for both the Democratic and Republican parties, the primary election is crucial in determining who will serve as the party’s official nominee.
Swing State?
Aside from the general importance of choosing the individual who will serve as the state’s executive, however, this year’s New Jersey governor’s race holds additional gravity. While New Jersey has been viewed as a safe blue state and Democratic stronghold—currently, the state government consists of a Democratic trifecta—Republicans gained significant ground in the 2024 election. While past Democratic presidential candidates won the state by double-digit margins, Kamala Harris squeaked by with just five percent. When Phil Murphy ran for reelection in 2021, he won by an even smaller margin of three percent—his opponent being the current Republican frontrunner, Jack Ciattarelli. And that same year, truck driver Ed Durr pulled off a stunning upset, ousting the Democratic Senate President Steve Sweeney—who is also currently running for the Democratic nomination—despite being outspent about $300,000 to $2,000. All these recent events point to a rightward shift in New Jersey that may culminate in this year’s governor’s race. As a result, Jersey’s governor’s race could serve as a litmus test for the political future of the state—will it remain a blue stronghold, or will Democrats need to dedicate the same level of effort to Jersey as it does to Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and the other swing states?
NJ shifts right
Of course, it’s also important to consider that these rightward shifts occurred in response to Joe Biden’s presidency. Given that President Trump’s approval rating is currently underwater by three to five points, voters in Jersey may respond accordingly. We saw this shift in Wisconsin two months ago, when Democrat-backed judge Susan Crawford was elected to be a state Supreme Court justice, defeating her opponent Brad Schimel—who was backed by the Republican party—by roughly ten points. Similarly, two Republican stronghold congressional districts in Florida experienced an upswell in Democratic support. Although Republicans held the congressional seats, Democrats Gay Valimont and Josh Weil improved the 2024 Democratic margin in the districts by seventeen and nineteen points, respectively, with Valimont even flipping Escambia County, a Republican stronghold that had not been won by a Democrat since 1992. And closer to home, a Pennsylvania special election in late March saw Democrat James Malone flip a state legislative district that voted for Trump by a fifteen-point margin in 2024. Wisconsin, Florida, and Pennsylvania all turned out for Trump last election cycle. These instances of Democratic overperformance may signal an end to the momentum that Republicans gained during the Biden presidency, which will play out in New Jersey.
New ballots
There are also other important factors to consider in the race. This year’s election is the first to occur without the county-line ballot being used in the primaries. Prior to Senator Andy Kim’s lawsuit that effectively ended this ballot design, New Jersey ballots featured party-endorsed candidates on the “county line,” while placing candidates not endorsed by the party on more obscure portions of the ballot. Critics of the design argued that the county-line ballot provided a “government-sponsored substantial advantage to party-endorsed candidates over their opponents.” According to Professor Julia Sass Rubin, party-endorsed candidates featured on the county line of the ballot received an overall advantage of 38% in elections. This primary election, therefore, could reflect the new weight of a county party endorsement—something especially worth examining on the Democratic side, where the primary is between six different candidates and has no clear winner in sight. Overall, there are two governor’s elections happening this year: one in New Jersey and one in Virginia. Both appear to be close, with no clear winner projected, and both may serve as a referendum on how the American people view the Trump administration’s performance. Best pay attention to them!
Democrats
On the Democrat side, the race is particularly contentious, with a six-way primary essentially unprecedented in New Jersey. The candidates are as follows:
Mikie Sherrill
Mikie Sherrill is the current frontrunner in the primary race, with the most recent Emerson College poll placing her at 28%. Sherrill is the current U.S. representative of NJ-11, our congressional district. NJ-11 comprises parts of Morris, Essex, and Passaic counties. As governor, Sherrill has pledged to focus on addressing New Jersey’s affordability crisis—lowering the cost of housing, healthcare, groceries, etc.—and fight Donald Trump’s policies at the state level. For instance, she strongly supports enshrining the right to an abortion in the state constitution. Another highlight of Sherrill’s campaign has been the emphasis on getting votes. At a time when many Democrats are concerned about the rightward shift in Jersey, Sherrill has pointed out her record of winning over more moderate voters. Her first 2018 victory was the largest red-to-blue swing in the nation. NJ-11 at the time was considered fairly conservative, having had the same Republican representative for over twenty years, and went for Trump in 2016. Sherrill’s feat—flipping NJ-11 blue—continues to be a major reason why many Democrats today support her in her bid for governor.
Ras Baraka
After Sherrill, the second place in the polls is slightly mixed. The Emerson College poll indicates a three-way tie between Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop, and U.S. representative Josh Gottheimer—all at 11%—for second place. However, other polls mostly point to Baraka as second place. Ras Baraka is the current mayor of Newark and is widely regarded as the most progressive candidate in the Democratic field. As governor, Baraka has pledged to tackle systemic challenges in Jersey—whether that be in housing, education, transportation, or more—and address wealth and racial inequities. Along with his progressive platform, Baraka has highlighted his achievements as the mayor of Newark: reducing crime and homelessness, prioritizing development of affordable housing, supporting small businesses—particularly those that are Black and brown and women-owned—and more. Baraka was recently arrested by ICE for allegedly trespassing on the property of the Delaney Hall detention center in Newark, though this charge was subsequently dropped. Baraka and fellow Democrats have argued that he, along with the three other Democratic representatives with him at the time of the incident, were exercising their duties to conduct oversight over the facility. This may be a factor that some Democratic primary voters deeply concerned about the Trump administration’s deportation policies will consider when casting their ballot in the next few weeks—after all, 24% of voters are still undecided.
Steve Fulop
Steve Fulop is the mayor of Jersey City. Fulop is a former U.S. Marine who served in Iraq following the September 11th attacks, and as Jersey City’s mayor, touts a record of progressive policies. Fulop has pointed to these achievements throughout the race, one of them being instituting paid sick leave in Jersey City—making the city the first in the state to do so. Aside from his record, Fulop’s campaign is unique in that it centers around government reform; he has declared that he will break down New Jersey’s political machine system. Criticizing some county parties for corruption, Fulop has advocated for greater regulation around state and local party chairs—from conflict of interest legislation to reducing the influence party chairs have on county commissioners and legislators. It is for this reason that Fulop refused to compete in any Democratic county conventions earlier this year. Many view this “anti-establishment” attitude towards the current New Jersey political system as the defining characteristic of his campaign, and as a continuation of Andy Kim’s efforts to abolish the county-line ballot. Some of his other priorities as governor are to improve transportation, infrastructure, and housing, and tackle New Jersey’s affordability crisis.
Josh Gottheimer
Congressman Josh Gottheimer represents New Jersey’s fifth congressional district, which comprises parts of Bergen, Sussex, and Passaic counties. Gottheimer originally worked for the Clinton and Obama administrations, and in 2016, unseated a Republican incumbent in a longtime red district—similar to Sherrill. Compared to the two other candidates he is tied with at 2nd place, Gottheimer is certainly much more moderate. His campaign is centered on lowering costs—particularly through tax relief and similar tax policies—and in Congress, Gottheimer is one of the Vice-Chairs of the bipartisan Problem Solvers caucus, which consists of an equal distribution of Republicans and Democrats.
Sean Spiller
Polling slightly behind Baraka, Fulop, and Gottheimer at 10%, Sean Spiller is the president of the New Jersey Education Association (NJEA), the largest teacher’s union in the state. Spiller was also a former public school educator, and the mayor of Montclair. As governor, his primary goal is to prioritize investing in and improving public education, as well as make New Jersey more affordable through various initiatives targeting the cost of housing, healthcare, childcare, higher education, and more. Recently, however, Spiller was the only candidate out of the six to fail to meet the fundraising requirement to attend the latest debate.
Steve Sweeney
Polling at 5%, Steve Sweeney is the former Democratic Senate President who represented New Jersey’s 3rd legislative district, which is made up of Salem, and parts of Gloucester and Cumberland counties. As mentioned previously, Sweeney was ousted from his seat in 2021 by Republican Ed Durr. He is the only Democrat running who is from South Jersey. Sweeney was a union ironworker, and has been endorsed by a number of unions in this race. His agenda as governor will be—like all other candidates running—to lower costs, whether that be in property taxes, healthcare, childcare, housing, or more. He has already promised no tax increases whatsoever as governor, and is a strong supporter of the Stay NJ program, which gives property tax relief to seniors. Throughout this race, Sweeney has emphasized his experience working in Trenton. His position as the only South Jersey candidate in the race has also helped his performance in that region.
Republicans
Unlike the Democrats, the Republican primary seems to have a clear frontrunner, but anything can happen leading up to Election Day.
Jack Ciattarelli
Jack Ciattarelli is the leader in the race, holding a substantial lead over his opponents at 44%. Ciattarelli is an entrepreneur and small business owner, and has served in his local government and the New Jersey State Assembly. His name might sound familiar. In 2021, Ciattarelli also ran as the Republican nominee for governor, and although he lost to Phil Murphy, made significant gains and lost by only three points. As governor, he plans to lower costs through various tax policies—including capping property taxes, lowering the income tax, and lowering the corporation business tax—and establish the New Jersey Department of Government Efficiency, similar to that of Elon Musk but at the state level. Like the other Republican candidates competing in the primary, Ciattarelli has also expressed support for ending New Jersey’s sanctuary state status and implementing stricter regulations on voting. However, he holds a more moderate view on social issues such as abortion than many of the other candidates running. Ciattarelli’s lead will most likely only grow as we get closer to election day due to the endorsement he received from Donald Trump a few weeks ago—although it’s interesting to note that unlike some other Republicans running, Ciattarelli was opposed to Trump when he first rose to power, calling him a “charlatan.” As Trump has become a mainstream figure in Republican politics, however, Ciattarelli has since shifted his stance.
Bill Spadea
At a distant second behind Ciattarelli is Bill Spadea, who is polling at 18%. Spadea served in the U.S. Marine Corps and is the host of the Bill Spadea Show, a New Jersey conservative radio show. He is considered further right than Ciattarelli, and unlike the Republican frontrunner, was an early supporter of Trump—something that Spadea pointed out in the first Republican primary debate in February. Spadea’s agenda includes a fifteen-week ban on abortion (hence his endorsement from both the national and New Jersey chapters of Right to Life), cracking down on illegal immigration in the state, and lowering the corporate tax rate.
Jon Bramnick
Senator Jon Bramnick currently polls at 8%. Bramnick is a former lawyer and professor, and served as the Republican Leader until 2021 in the State Assembly. He is arguably the most moderate Republican in the primary, having been a longtime critic of Donald Trump and maintained close ties with former Governor Chris Christie. Bramnick’s proposed policies include cutting income taxes, providing property tax relief, blocking further housing development mandates, and supporting charter schools and school choice. He also supports establishing a Government Efficiency Panel, although unlike Ciattarelli’s idea of a NJDOGE, would have the panel be citizen-led. Bramnick’s campaign is certainly unique in that he is running as an anti-Trump Republican—a position that has become more and more unpopular in the party. However, Bramnick is attempting to make up for this by tacking further to the right than his opponents on immigration. Recent campaign literature he has sent out features that he authored the Laken Riley Act, opposes New Jersey’s sanctuary state policy, and would take a hardline on illegal immigration. Bramnick has also emphasized his ability to win votes. In 2023, he was elected senator by 7 points in a Biden +17 and Harris +12 legislative district.
Mario Kranjac
The last two Republicans running, Mario Kranjac and Justin Barbera, are distant last places, with both polling at 2% each. The former, Kranjac, was the mayor of Englewood Cliffs, and has been referred to by the media as a “Forever Trumper” and the “Trumpy mayor” of Englewood Cliffs. As governor, Kranjac has voiced that he would significantly cut property taxes, lower taxes for businesses, work with the Trump administration on immigration, end housing development mandates, and oppose abortion, “protecting life from conception to death.” Like Ciattarelli, Kranjac is also in support of creating a NJDOGE.
Justin Barbera
Another longshot bid for governor, Justin Barbera is a Burlington county Republican who gathered enough signatures to be on the ballot (another Republican, Hans Herberg, was not so lucky and is currently running as a write-in). Like Spadea and Kranjac, Barbera is a longtime Trump loyalist. His main priorities as governor are to protect gun rights, lower taxes, reform education and prevent schools from pushing “left-wing agendas” on children, and strengthen government accountability. Last year, Barbera ran as a third party candidate with Join the Revolution, aiming to win Andy Kim’s vacated U.S. House seat in NJ-3, but came in last with 0.3% of the vote.
Conclusion
Regardless of which way you swing, this year’s gubernatorial election will be an interesting one. Be sure to research all the candidates on your own and stay updated.
0
0
Average Rating